CUE Research · Pre-registered test
Are the Greatest Singers Born in Dog Years?
250 famous singers, from Elvis Presley and Whitney Houston to Justin Bieber, read by their Chinese sign.
The singers: everyone on Rolling Stone’s greatest singers lists (2023 and 2008) or among the world’s best-selling solo artists, with a birth date confirmed by two sources. The list was fixed before any sign was worked out.
The answer No meaningful evidence of a Dog Singer Effect
25 of the 250 singers are Dogs. Random birthdays from the same generations would give about 21. That is 1.22 times as many, a lean chance produces often (p = 0.30).
Dog is not alone: Rooster (1.25×), Pig (1.23×), Dog (1.22×) lead, and every sign falls within normal variation. Among the best-selling singers Dogs are 1.82 times expected, carried by three stars born in 1958 (Madonna, Michael Jackson, Prince); among the critics’ picks the figure is 1.09. Guitarists and drummers carry Dogs at 1.32 times expected, so the lean is not specific to singing.
Every sign, against expectation
The bar is how many singers carry each sign; the line is how many random birthdays from the same generations would give.
Ranked by records sold
Counting heads treats a one-hit star the same as Michael Jackson. Weighting each singer by certified sales, as the wealth study weighted by net worth, asks a different question: where do the records sit?
Dog singers hold 16.4% of all certified units on the world list, against 8.3% expected: 1.98 times their share, the most of any sign. Random signs give Dog a share this large 3.6% of the time. Behind it: Justin Bieber, Michael Jackson, Elvis Presley, Lil Wayne, Madonna, Nicki Minaj, Prince, Kelly Clarkson.
| Sales list | Solo singers | Dogs | Dog share of units | Expected | Random as large | Any sign this large |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World’s best-selling solo artists (certified units, all markets) | 80 | 12 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 39.4% |
| Highest-certified solo artists in the US (RIAA) | 52 | 7 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 54.2% |
| RIAA artists not on the world list | 10 | 1 | 14.5% | 8.1% | 22.5% | 83.0% |
Read this honestly
- This view was added after the head count showed Dogs leaning high among best-sellers, so on the world list it is exploratory, not a test.
- The US list is not independent: 42 of its 52 solo singers are also on the world list. The 10 who are not include one Dog.
- Some sign always comes out on top: a leader this large turns up 39.4% of the time by chance. What makes Dog notable is that CUE named it before the data.
- Without Michael Jackson and Elvis Presley, Dogs still hold about 12% of the world list’s units, against about 8% expected.
- The clean test is new sales data that has not been looked at: the best-selling artists of Japan, Brazil and Latin music, whose singers are mostly different people.
The Dog singers
Al Green, Andrea Bocelli, Cher, David Bowie, Elvis Presley, Frankie Valli, Freddie Mercury, Héctor Lavoe, Howlin’ Wolf, Jackie Wilson, Justin Bieber, Kate Bush, Kelly Clarkson, Leonard Cohen, Lil Wayne, Linda Ronstadt, Madonna, Marianne Faithfull, Mary J. Blige, Michael Jackson, Nicki Minaj, Patti Smith, Prince, Sade, Sandy Denny.
The checks
| Group | Singers | Dogs | Expected | Ratio | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All famous singers | 250 | 25 | 20.5 | 1.22 | 0.30 |
| Critics’ picks (Rolling Stone) | 202 | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09 | 0.70 |
| Best-selling solo artists | 80 | 12 | 6.6 | 1.82 | 0.04 |
| Critics’ consensus top 10 | 10 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.23 | 0.57 |
| Critics’ consensus top 25 | 25 | 4 | 2.0 | 1.96 | 0.14 |
| Critics’ consensus top 50 | 50 | 7 | 4.1 | 1.72 | 0.12 |
| Critics’ consensus top 100 | 95 | 12 | 7.8 | 1.54 | 0.13 |
| Men (critics’ picks) | 118 | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Women (critics’ picks) | 85 | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| Guitarists and drummers (not singers) | 260 | 28 | 21.2 | 1.32 | 0.14 |
Does Dog rise among the very greatest? In the critics’ consensus the Dog share is 1 of 10 in the top 10, 4 of 25 in the top 25, 7 of 50 in the top 50, 12 of 95 in the top 100. Shuffling the rankings at random gives a top-25 concentration at least this strong 39% of the time, so there is no reliable gradient.
Method How it was done
- Singers: Rolling Stone, The 200 Greatest Singers of All Time (2023) and The 100 Greatest Singers of All Time (2008); English Wikipedia, List of best-selling music artists (solo people only).
- Birth dates: Wikidata and MusicBrainz must agree to the day. Singers whose date could not be confirmed are left out rather than guessed.
- Chinese signs from CUE’s engine, using the true lunar new year (so Elvis, born 8 January 1935, is a 1934 Dog) and Cat rather than Rabbit.
- Expected counts: each singer contributes the twelve years around their birth, one full zodiac cycle, so the baseline follows each generation without assuming anyone’s sign.
- All twelve signs are tested the same way, with correction for testing twelve.